Trust is a bitch

Following the news over the last few weeks has been like watching a recent Hollywood movie. And not a good one. Extraordinary geopolitical events have followed one another in an avalanche of headlines. Like many of us, I have been trying to follow up and understand what kind of impacts all this will have on our world, both near and long-term. It is not an easy task, but one thing is clear – things will not be the same.

At some point in their lives most people will start to reflect on the life they have lived and the choices they have made. In my experience, most would like to be remembered as trustworthy and loyal people, all-around decent human beings and most importantly – passionate lovers. But, as recent events have shown, this does not apply to everyone on the planet.

Most of us in the Western world have had the luxury of living in a world of law and order, where the institutions, treaties and international law have safeguarded our lives and created the wealth and well-being we see around us.

This has all been largely based on one thing – trust. Trust on the institutions, trust on the treaties and trust on the rule of law.

Recently, we have witnessed a shift where the world is transitioning towards transactionalism and to a model where the right and wrong are defined by the most powerful. Where trust is a commodity and available to interpretations. Where cynicism trumps good faith.

And do not get me wrong, I fully understand that this is how the human world has been for most of its history, where those in power ruled with force and the end absolutely justified the means. We, as a species, are much more familiar with that kind of world order, than the one we enjoyed in the Western world after WW2.

If you look purely at the economic development over the last 2000 years, the post-WW2 trust-based Western world has clearly been an incredible success. Essentially, it took 1950 years for the $GDP/capita to grow from near zero to $5000 and then only another 50 years or so for the $GDP/capita to quadruple.

Source: The Atlantic

I am simplifying things here, and there are, of course, other factors in play, such as the post-WW2 technological development which enabled the leaps in productivity. But I argue that many of those technological developments were possible, because the Western world created a stable and predictable framework where people could trust that society will protect them, their families and their inventions and business. It was far from perfect, but it worked and an incredible amount of well-being was created. Just ask Soviet Union how their model worked.

All this hits me deeply. I have had the privilege of growing up in a country where trust, in all aspects of life, has been exceptionally high. In Finland the trust in government and public institutions have traditionally been one of the highest in the world. It has been argued that the trust in society has played a key role why Finland has been selected the happiest nation on Earth for the past eight years in a row.

Because trust is so embedded in the Finnish society, it is valued highly, almost to a point where it is the (naïve) expectation, the default. Conversely, if you break a trust in Finland, it will have a lasting negative impact on you and your character. Trust is seen as a reflection of a person’s values, and it can only be broken once. And when the most respected values are based on trust, they become non-negotiable. This is the core reason why Finland reacted so strongly on Russia’s illegal and barbaric war on Ukraine – a trust was broken and Russia’s true values were revealed. Like our then President Sauli Niinistö said on 24 February 2022: “The masks have fallen and we only see the cold faces of war”.

We kind of knew Russia’s true values all along but had put our faith in the trust-based world order and the status quo we had for 80 years. Well, not completely, there is a reason why the Finnish military is one of the strongest in Europe, along with Poland and Ukraine.

Our President Alexander Stubb was recently asked in Davos whether Europe can defend itself against possible Russian attack. You can clearly see that he is annoyed and says, “My answer is unequivocally yes”. I am sure he would have said the same thing, if asked whether Finland can defend itself against possible Russian attack. He knows that the Finnish people would fight to the teeth, with or without allies and regardless of the potential outcome. Because we trust our institutions and each other, and we have values that are non-negotiable, under any circumstances.

And this is the reason why things will not be the same anymore. The forever optimist in me believes (maybe naively) that the Atlantic relationships can be mended in good faith and a working alliance restored. But it will be different, because trust was broken. And trust can only be broken once.